| The CPI figures rely on government-reported statistics, and governments have a well-documented tendency to understate inflation in order to make their currencies and economies appear stronger than they actually are.
In fact, if measured by the original CPI formula from the 1970’s, when the government conspired to make inflation lower. The actual CPI inflation rate today is 13.5%. – more than 4 times higher than the ‘official’ 2.9% rate the government claims. Which explains why the U.S. dollar has lost another 12% of purchasing power year-to-date in 2025.
Most people have noticed that the price increases they experience in the real world don’t line up with the tame inflation numbers coming from ‘ official’ government statistics. Trust what gold is telling us, and it is saying that ‘official’ inflation metrics are understating reality dramatically.
Another reason is that savvy players such as central banks and hedge funds, who have superior access to information and a far deeper understanding of the global macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary situation, have dominated gold buying and have been the main drivers of the gold bull market in recent years, with relatively little participation from retail investors.
Their actions indicate that gold’s surge is not random but is anticipating much higher future inflation as a byproduct of today’s excessive global debt levels. That debt burden will certainly require aggressive debasement of fiat currencies in the coming years. In this scenario, the inflation reflected in the price of gold is actually leading the official inflation that eventually appears in consumer price indexes.
Now let’s examine why currencies steadily lose purchasing power over time: inflation, or the persistent rise in the cost of living. It’s important to understand that inflation isn’t fundamentally caused by wars, tariffs, supply shocks, strikes, droughts, or energy crises. These factors may contribute to short-term price spikes, but they are not the underlying driver.
At its core, inflation results from the debasement of currency. In other words, it is the dilution of a currency’s value through creation of new money. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” As the chart below illustrates, the global M2 money supply, one of the most widely used measures of total currency in circulation, has surged by 205% since 2007, rising from $38 trillion to a staggering $115 trillion. This massive expansion of the money supply is the driving force behind the soaring cost of living worldwide and a key reason why the price of gold has surged in every major currency across the globe. |